Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Ironman Hawaii Women's Odds

I guess it was inevitable that my first post would be about Ironman Hawaii. This blog is really geared more towards the average athlete, but I could not ignore the most exciting triathlon coming up, Ironman Hawaii! I have two girlfriends that are there now, preparing for the race this weekend. Good luck Teresa and MJ!!!

Here's part of an article from Slowtwitch. You can read the entire article with all the women they lay odds on, I just list the top 4. Go Chrissie! She is amazing, and I'm sure I'll talk more about her in the future.

2009 IMH Women’s Odds

Written by: Timothy Carlson
Date: Thu Oct 01 2009

[Editor's note: Timothy Carlson's odds, presented here, are those used by ProBikePool. The winner takes home a Kuota Kalibur bicycle.]

Look. The only reason the odds are so high for everyone else is that Chrissie Wellington had proved to be an Ironman phenomenon that comes around every decade or so. Anyone seriously looking at guessing the order of finishers should start with her. Unless you have a hot hand and a strong premonition that the best triathlete in the field has somehow run out of luck, CW, which also stands for Conventional Wisdom, dominates the chalk.

Still, folks like Catriona Morrison, Rebekah Keat, and Mirinda Carfrae have looked really really well prepared. If you are talking a bout top 5, you can’t write off great champions like Michellie Jones and – against all odds after her devastating crash in 2007 – six-time winner Natascha Badmann.

Really, the only sure thing is that Madame Pele is in charge – and she likes to play tricks.

Good luck

Chrissie Wellington (GBR) – 3-2
Age: 32
Bib number: 101

After her dark horse, longshot straight-outta-nowhere win at Kona in 2007, Miss Wellington is unbeaten in seven attempts at the Ironman distance – plus an ITU long course world title -- and is the two-time defending champion at Ironman Hawaii. Not only that, she smashed the world best mark for the Ironman distance with an astonishing 8:31:59 clocking at Quelle Challenge Roth and on the day also smashed the women’s Ironman bike leg record with a 4:40 clocking. Whew! Perhaps even more impressive is her record of breaking the 9-hour barrier not only at Autobahns like Roth, but also managing that feat on much tougher courses like Frankfurt and Port Macquairie. She also runs sub-three hours at every venue. The only reason she is not going off at 1-2 odds is a series of slender hints of threads of potential vulnerability: (1) switched coaches from Brett Sutton to Simon Lessing and then decided to go on her own. Danger? Her inherent inclination to do massive amounts of work. Needs a governor to last. (2) While she finished 6th at Olympic distance Columbia Triathlon, that can be dismissed as not her forte any more. But loss to Julie Dibens at Boulder 5430 long course showed pretenders to her throne that Wellington can be beaten. (3) On Wellington’s amazing record-smashing day at Roth, Rebekah Keat was just 7 minutes behind – and Keat outran her, 2:55 to 2:57. Wellington beat Keat earlier by 20-plus minutes at Ironman Australia. Shows what Brett Sutton coaching can do for everyone, not just Wellington. (4) Also, hard-running Catriona Morrison came within two minutes of Wellington at Timberman 70.3 (5) Anything can happen at Ironman Hawaii – catch a virus on the plane or bacteria on the swim after rains, hit by a car riding or walking in town, get two flats and run out of CO2 canisters, etc.
Rebekah Keat (AUS) – 13-2
Age: 31
Bib number: 116

The good karma kid after lending the otherwise-dead-in-the-water Wellington her CO2 canisters at Kona. When Wellington left miracle worker coach Sutton because Team TBB contract limited her suddenly immense sponsorship opportunities, Keat signed on with Sutton and the results have been typically life-changing. After a third at Geelong 70.3 and a 23-minutes-behind second place to Wellington at Ironman Oz, Keat got in gear at Roth with an 8:39:24, a second-best-Iron-distance-effort-ever finish and outrunning Wellington 2:55 to 2:57. Under the radar since then, Sutton is likely devoting all his Henry Higgins mojo to give Keat her My Fair Lady moment in the Kona sun.

Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) – 7-1
Age: 37
Bib number: 103

Last year’s third place finisher at Kona whipped Kona runner-up Yvonne Van Vlerken and cracked 9 hours at tough Frankfurt course. Also won Austria 70.3 and ran 1:21 there for a 1:17 margin over ITU short course star Lucie Zelenkova. Potential negative; She IS 37, the age at which Paula Newby-Fraser retired from serious 24/7/365 professional status.

Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) – 8-1
Age: 29
Bib number: 131

The one and only reason Carfrae isn’t listed as second favorite is the fact that the mighty mite from Queensland has never done an Ironman before. That said, the 2007 Ironman 70.3 World Champion has had a fantastic year: wins at five half Ironman distance venues -- California 70.3, Revolution3, Eagleman 70.3, Calgary 70.3 and Muskoka 70.3 – with a narrow loss at St. Croix to Morrison. During that spell, she beat the almost-new, revived Natascha Badmann twice, reeled off several sub-1:20 half marathons, and kept her yearlong focus on Kona. Under coach Siri Lindley, Carfrae has prepared perfectly for Ironman Hawaii. Having waited a few years to fully mature for the Ironman grind, Carfrae has the potential – tricky word - to actually defeat Wellington head up. But with no Ironman marathons under her belt, that will be much easier said than done.

1 comment:

sharon said...

I'm so excited to see what Mirinda does on the long course.....Remember how she ran "like an animal possessed" on that freakin hot mohave desert trail in Vegas?! Her Zoot is ready and she's very excited.....